Introduction
Ensemble Forecast Systems provide a way to quantify the probability of a forecast weather event. The benefit of a probabilistic forecast based on an ensemble of several forecast models grows as the forecast lead time increases and different model solutions diverge. This module provides an introduction to ensemble forecast systems with an operational case study of Hurricane Sandy. The module concentrates on models from NCEP and FNMOC available to forecasters in the U.S. Navy, including NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System), and NUOPC (National Unified Operational Prediction Capability).
I. Scenario: Ship Routing and Resource Protection During Hurricane Sandy
In this scenario a Navy ship router forecasts the weather for the long, slow transit of a barge from a shipyard in Pascagoula, Mississippi, to another shipyard in Bath, Maine. The transit requires medium to long-range forecasts of winds and waves derived from ensemble forecast products. The development of Hurricane Sandy alters the forecast and shifts the focus from ship routing to coastal resource protection at landfall.
II. Lessons
This series of lessons supports the use and understanding Ensemble Forecast Systems encountered in the scenario. While accessing the scenario, there are links to the lessons. Each lesson is also accessible here, separate from the scenario. The links to the lessons will open in a new browser window.