Introduction
The National Weather Service (NWS) Meteorological Development Lab (MDL) is continuing to develop the National Blend of Models (NBM), which will contain more extensive probabilistic guidance in its next implementation. NBM v3.2 is due to be released operationally in December 2019, and will include new probabilistic forecast elements for QPF, snowfall, ice accumulation, and maximum and minimum temperature. In turn, these probabilistic weather elements will require understanding the statistical concepts used for each.
Additionally, new elements have been added to provide deterministic guidance for winter weather. Finally, blending methods have been improved for some existing weather elements. This video, published in April 2019, provides an overview of the changes implemented in the new NBM v3.2.
This lesson familiarizes the forecaster with winter weather elements of the NBM v3.2. Companion lessons address non-winter weather guidance products.
- NBM v3.2 Weather Elements (estimated publication November, 2019),
- NBM v3.2 Modified Blend Methods and New Model Components.
Lesson Objectives
Upon completion of this lesson, the learner should be able to:
- Identify and describe at least two of the changes to the diagnosis of forecast winter weather elements in NBM v3.2
- Identify at least three probabilistic winter weather elements in NBM v3.2.
- Identify at least three deterministic winter weather elements in NBM v3.2.
- Demonstrate the appropriate use of NBM v3.2 probabilistic winter weather elements, through winter weather case examples.