Introduction and Case Profile

The case focuses on squall lines that affected Jamaica on 28 September during the formation of Tropical Depression #16, which became Tropical Storm Nicole. The emphasis is on identification of features in the radar imagery that are associated with weather hazards such as high winds, tornadoes, heavy rain, and flash floods. The hazards to aviation are explored for each phenomenon that is reviewed.

Case Timeframe

28 September - 29 September 2010

Phenomena of Interest

Squall lines, bow echo, tornadoes, damaging surface winds, heavy rainfall and flash flooding

Forecasting Challenges

Forecasters need to recognize the key synoptic ingredients that can lead to the development of squall lines; identify signals in the radar and satellite imagery that can be associated with these systems; and identify mesoscale and convective scale severe weather signatures in the radar imagery. The latter will be achieved with the use of conceptual models and real examples.