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Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails

Description

Typical Extreme Forecast Map Output for a Single Weather Variable

The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Shift of Tails (SOT) product is used to evaluate the possibility of weather variables having unusual or extreme values compared to a model climate. Forecasters are not always familiar with what constitutes a typical range of conditions based on model output only. Therefore, a comparison to the model climate (or observed climatology in some products) is useful to help identify anomalous forecast conditions that could cause significant weather impacts.