To support your use of the EPV chart, consider the following synoptic
elements that are favourable for CSI and slantwise convection:
- Strong horizontal temperature gradient aloft (and not necessarily
at the surface), which results in windspeeds increasing with height
in a moderate to strong speed shear
- Usually southerly to southwesterly upper flow, with little directional
shear at those levels anecdotal evidence suggests that
westerly flow can also be favourable over downstream regions far
enough from the mountains that the westerlies can be moist.
- Gravitational stability near neutral but slightly stable
the vertical profile is generally close to the moist adiabatic
lapse rate at lower to middle levels
- Atmosphere near saturation
- Generally weak large-scale upward motion present
- Upper absolute vorticity small or close to zero (neutral or
even anticyclonic upper pattern)
- Often occurs ahead of a surface warm front, but may also be
found north or northwest of a surface cold front oriented W-E
or SW-NE
- May be more frequent on the anticyclonic shear side of an upper-level
jet streak
- Frontogenetic forcing acting as a lifting mechanism CSI
situations are related to strong horizontal temperature gradients,
which can be related to frontogenesis
According to Wiesmueller and Zubrick (1998), "CSI often occurs
near a warm front and ahead of a large-scale upper trough in regions
of strong, moist southwesterly midtropospheric flow. In these regions,
the atmosphere has a disposition for weak large-scale ascent, which
is important for saturating the airmass. CSI is then released by
parcel perturbations, of which the slantwise displacements are unstable."
Furthermore, they state that "CSI may operate in an otherwise
seemingly innocuous synoptic setting and may contribute to unexpectedly
large precipitation amounts." Also, several authors have noted
that frontogenetical forcing can be an important mechanism for generating
banded mesoscale precipitation patterns, such as those that can
occur with the release of CSI.
In general, modern NWP models generally forecast some precipitation
in areas where slantwise convection occurs, but the mesoscale banding
and maximum amounts are not accurately represented. One possible
explanation for this weakness is that it may be related to inadequate
model resolution. If so, operational forecasters should see improvements
with increasing model resolution.
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