An Introduction to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

An Introduction to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
Outline
Introduction
Users of NWS Hydrology Products
Hydrologic Models Overview
Model Error and Forecast Uncertainty
Definitions
- Definitions
- Definitions (cont.)
- Definitions (cont.)
Time-series Overview
Definitions
Streamflow Example
Definitions (cont.)
Ensemble Example
- Traditional Analysis
- Traditional Analysis (cont.)
- Traditional Analysis (cont.)
- Traditional Analysis (cont.)
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
ESP Technique
- ESP Technique
- ESP Technique (cont.)
- ESP Technique (cont.)
ESP Input
Simulation Types
- Simulation Types
- Simulation Types (cont.)
- Simulation Types (cont.)
NWS River Forecast System
Forecast Conditions
Soil Moisture
Verification
- Verification
- Verification (cont.)
ESP Products
- ESP Products
- Products - Trace Plots
- Products - Expected Value Plot
- Products - Probability Plot
- Products - Exceedance Plot
Probabilistic Flood Mapping
Summary
References
Contributors