An Introduction to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

An Introduction to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

Outline

Introduction

Users of NWS Hydrology Products

Hydrologic Models Overview

Model Error and Forecast Uncertainty

Definitions

Definitions

Definitions (cont.)

Definitions (cont.)

Time-series Overview

Definitions

Streamflow Example

Definitions (cont.)

Ensemble Example

Traditional Analysis

Traditional Analysis

Traditional Analysis (cont.)

Traditional Analysis (cont.)

Traditional Analysis (cont.)

Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

ESP Technique

ESP Technique

ESP Technique (cont.)

ESP Technique (cont.)

ESP Input

Simulation Types

Simulation Types

Simulation Types (cont.)

Simulation Types (cont.)

NWS River Forecast System

Forecast Conditions

Soil Moisture

Verification

Verification

Verification (cont.)

ESP Products

ESP Products

Products - Trace Plots

Products - Expected Value Plot

Products - Probability Plot

Products - Exceedance Plot

Probabilistic Flood Mapping

Summary

References

Adrien, N. 2004, Computational Hydraulics and Hydrology, An Illustrated Dictionary. New York, NY. CRC Press.

Clark, M., S. Gangopadhyayb, L. Hayc, B. Rajagopaland, and R. Wilbya. 2004. The Schaake Shuffle: A Method for Reconstructing Space-Time Variability in Forecasted Precipitation and Temperature Fields. Journel of Hydrometeorology, Volume 5, Issue 1. pp. 243-262 .

Day, G.N., 1985: Extended streamflow forecasting using NWSRFS. J. Water. Res. Planning and Management, 111, 157-170.

Franz, K.J., H. Hartmann, S. Sorooshian, and R. Bales. 2003. Verification of National Weather Service Ensemble Streamflow Predictions for Water Supply Forecasting in the Colorado River Basin. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Volume 4, Issue 6. pp. 1105-1118.

NOAA - National Wether Service. 2006. National Weather Service River Forecast Verification Plan, Report of the Hydrologic Verification System Requirements Team. Silver Spring, MD.
https://www.weather.gov/oh/rfcdev/docs/Final_Verification_Report.pdf

Mullusky, M., J. Demargne, E. Welles, L. Wu and Schaake. 2004. Hydrologic Applications of Short and Medium Range Ensemble Forecasts in the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Predction Service (AHPS). Joint Session 11, Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles: Part IV, Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction. American Meteorological Society. Seattle, WA.

Seo, D.J., J. Demargne, S. Cong, L. Wu, J Schaake, and P. Restrepo. 2006. Progress Update on Development of Prototype Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System for NWS Operations. Climate Prediction Program for the Americas. Tucson, AZ.

Welles, E. 2005. Verification of River Stage Forecasts. Ph.D. Dissertation. University of Arizona. Tucson, AZ.

Contributors

COMET Sponsors

  • Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)
  • Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC)
  • National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS)
  • Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command (NMOC)
  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
  • National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS)
  • Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)

Principal Science Advisors

  • Dr. Richard Koehler — NOAA/NWS
  • Matt Kelsch — UCAR/COMET

Additional Science Review

  • Kevin Werner, NWS Western Region, NOAA

Project Leads

  • Dr. Richard Koehler — NOAA/NWS
  • Lon Goldstein — UCAR/COMET

Multimedia Authoring

  • Dr. Richard Koehler — NOAA/NWS
  • Lon Goldstein — UCAR/COMET

Audio Editing/Production

  • Dr. Richard Koehler — NOAA/NWS
  • Lon Goldstein — UCAR/COMET

Computer Graphics/Interface Design

  • Heidi Godsil — UCAR/COMET

Software Testing/Quality Assurance

  • Michael Smith — UCAR/COMET

Copyrights Administration

  • Michael Smith — UCAR/COMET

Data Provided by

  • California-Nevada River Forecast Center, NWS. Robert Hartman, Hydrologist-in-Charge
  • Dr. Julie Demargne, OHD, NWS, NOAA
  • NOAA

COMET HTML Integration Team 2021

  • Tim Alberta — Project Manager
  • Dolores Kiessling — Project Lead
  • Steve Deyo — Graphic Artist
  • Ariana Kiessling — Web Developer
  • Gary Pacheco — Lead Web Developer
  • David Russi — Translations
  • Tyler Winstead — Web Developer

COMET Staff, January 2007

Director

  • Dr. Timothy Spangler

Deputy Director

  • Dr. Joe Lamos

Business Manager/Supervisor of Administration

  • Elizabeth Lessard

Administration

  • Lorrie Alberta
  • Hildy Kane
  • Linda Korsgaard

Graphics/Media Production

  • Steve Deyo
  • Heidi Godsil
  • Seth Lamos

Hardware/Software Support and Programming

  • Tim Alberta (IT Manager)
  • James Hamm
  • Karl Hanzel
  • Ken Kim
  • Mark Mulholland
  • Dan Riter
  • Carl Whitehurst
  • Malte Winkler

Instructional Design

  • Patrick Parrish (Production Manager)
  • Dr. Alan Bol
  • Lon Goldstein
  • Dr. Vickie Johnson
  • Bruce Muller
  • Dwight Owens
  • Dr. Sherwood Wang
  • Marianne Weingroff

Meteorologists

  • Dr. Greg Byrd (Project Cluster Manager)
  • Wendy Schreiber-Abshire (Project Cluster Manager)
  • Dr. William Bua
  • Patrick Dills
  • Tom Dulong
  • Kevin Fuell
  • Dr. Stephen Jascourt
  • Matthew Kelsch
  • Dolores Kiessling
  • Dr. Arlene Laing
  • Dr. Elizabeth Mulvihill Page
  • Amy Stevermer
  • Dr. Doug Wesley

Software Testing/Quality Assurance/Copyrights Administration

  • Michael Smith (Coordinator)

Spanish Translations

  • David Russi

NOAA/National Weather Service - Forecast Decision Training Branch

  • Anthony Mostek (NWS COMET Branch Chief [acting] and Satellite Training Leader)
  • Dr. Richard Koehler (Hydrology Training Lead)
  • Brian Motta (IFPS Training)
  • Dr. Robert Rozumalski (SOO Science and Training Resource [SOO/STRC] Coordinator)
  • Shannon White (AWIPS Training)

Meteorological Service of Canada Visiting Meteorologists

  • Phil Chadwick
  • James Cummine

Back to Top