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• Introduction
  • The Challenge of Composing a QPF
  • Where, When, and How Much?
  • Tracking Regions of Moisture, Lift and Instability
  • Questions to Ask
  • Factors Determining the Rainfall Amount
  • Determining the Areal Extent of the Rainfall
  • Importance of Pattern Recognition
• Metereologocial Considerations
  • Importance of Large-scale Areas of Lift
  • Identifying Important Mesoscale Features
  • Using Model Data to Identify Favorable Patterns
  • Determining Potential Precipitation Intensity
  • Estimating Precipation Efficiency
  • Precipitation Efficiency Factors
• Will Convection Occur?
  • Will Convection Occur?
  • Assessing Instability
  • Anticipating Stability Changes
  • Convective Available Potential Energy
  • Releasing CAPE
  • The Importance of CIN
• System Movement
  • System Movement
  • Cell Movement and Propagation
  • Outflows Impacts on Propagation
  • Individual Cell Movement
  • MBE Movement
  • System Movement
  • System Propagation
  • Thickness Considerations
  • Quasi-Stationary Convective System: Example
  • Factors Favorable to Quasi-Stationary Convection
  • System Evolution: Example
  • Why Was the System Stationary for 9 Hours?
  • The Effects of System Shape and Movement
  • When to Expect 3" or More
  • Factors Favoring Training or Regeneration
• Short Range QPFs/Jets/Tropical Systems
  • Short Range (0-6 hr) Forecasts
  • Using radar Data
  • NEXRAD Limitations
  • Impact of Upper-level Jets
  • Upper-level Jet and Cyclones
  • Jet Streaks and Cyclogenesis
  • Summer of 1993: Example
  • Importance of the LLJ
  • Tropical Storm Conceptual Model
  • Rainfall with Tropical Systems
  • More on Tropical Systems
  • Rules of Thumb for Predicting Heavy Rain
  • More Rules of Thumb
• References
• Contributors