Introduction

Do you find yourself short on time for everyday weather analysis and diagnosis? Were you once perplexed by the atmospheric conditions that were completely unpredicted by NWP or fellow forecasters? Have you wanted a one-stop-shop method to help you synthesize information from multiple levels on both the synoptic and mesoscales? If you answered yes to any of these questions, this lesson can assist you.

This lesson combines fundamental analysis and diagnosis concepts from COMET’s “Satellite Water Vapour Interpretation -- Short Course” into a coherent set of 3D mental models that will help forecasters understand and predict sensible weather. Honing and building upon these skills will help forecasters streamline their analysis and diagnosis process and will provide them more avenues to add human value to NWP forecasts.

Throughout the lesson water vapour analyses will be compared with surface observations to diagnose atmospheric processes and capture the forcings for the short-term weather. The objectives for this lesson are:

• Develop a three-dimensional, atmospheric mental model using surface and water vapour analyses.
• Diagnose differential vorticity advection based on the slope of vorticity tubes by comparing surface and water vapour analyses.
  • Forecast sensible weather based on this diagnosis.
• Diagnose ana- and katafronts based on surface front and upper-level deformation zone overlap by comparing surface and water vapour analyses.
  • Forecast sensible weather based on this diagnosis.
• Diagnose dry conveyor belt pulse deepening based on darkening water vapour imagery.
  • Forecast sensible weather changes based on this diagnosis.
• Synthesize information from water vapour and surface analyses to write a forecast.

Completing and/or reviewing the Satellite Water Vapour Interpretation -- Short Course prerequisite modules covering deformation zone analysis and vorticity center identification using water vapour, inferring three dimensions from water vapour, and conveyor belts is HIGHLY recommended. A solid understanding of QG theory, frontogenetic/frontolytic circulations, and experience with hand surface-chart analysis are also suggested.

We’ll begin by testing your analysis skills.