Forecast Reliability: MCRPS
A component of the MCRPS can be used to assess forecast reliability. The MCRPS can be decomposed into Reliability minus Resolution plus Uncertainty. So we can isolate and view the reliability component. Recall that forecast reliability looks at forecast performance conditioned on the forecast. So it helps us answer the question, "when the forecast is for X, what do the observations show?" Later we will look at forecast discrimination, which is conditioned on the observation and answers the question, "when the observation is X, what had the corresponding forecasts indicated?"