Skill with Respect to Lead Time
We don't always expect the skill to be best at the initialization time. This is a function of how the data were recreated for this case. This graphic shows the skill of the operational forecast when compared with the climatology-based forecasts that were generated retrospectively with no forecaster modifications. High skill early on is mainly a result of the initialization. Then at about 36 hours we see the skill contribution from QPF, especially in the high flows graph.
