Headwater Box Plot Zoomed: 126 Hour Lead
The 126-hour lead time shows more spread of the ensemble forecasts here in the lower 80% of values. You can still see the tendency to overforecast low values, especially with the very low values on the left side.
The main point to be taken from the box plots at the headwater location is that QPF input does result in more appropriate ensemble spread in the flow forecasts. QPF input is advantageous over climatologically-based QPF input in that the climatologically based input results in more tendency for low bias as well as underspread associated with the high flow events.