Headwater Box Plot: 6-Hour Lead
Let's start with the headwater point at Williamsburg. At a 6-hour lead time there is very little spread in the ensemble forecasts. In fact, you can't really see the green part of the box plots that represent the middle 50% of ensemble members because those boxes are so small. As it turns out, many of the box plots do not intersect the zero line at all, indicating poor matching between forecasts and observations.
This is phase 1 when the QPF ensembles have not had an impact yet and flow forecasts are dominated by observed runoff.
