Correlation of QPF Input
Here we can examine the correlation between the ensemble mean QPF and the observed precipitation. The ensemble QPF forecast correlation shows similar behavior as Root Mean Squared Error and Mean Error. Good correlation for all precipitation thresholds is seen in the first 48 hour. Then in the 48 to 72 hour period when climatologically-based QPF kicks in, there is almost no correlation (zero value) between the forecasts and observations. There is even a bit of a negative correlation for the high precipitation threshold. This should impact the flow forecasts in a similar way.
