Examining Ensemble Means
Verification using ensemble means can provide a general look at the forecast performance. Remember, with ensemble means you are making a deterministic forecast out of ensemble forecasts. The range of solutions seen in the ensemble spread is removed.
But for a general impression of the forecast system over time, this may be a good first option.
We will look at the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), the Mean Error (ME) which is sometimes called the additive bias, and the Correlation Coefficient (CC).
