Introduction

This is San Francisco’s beautiful Embarcadero Historic District.

Sea Level Change, collage of Embarcadero photos.

The National Trust for Historic Preservation named the Embarcadero as one of the most endangered historic places in the United States, reporting that “The district is facing two major physical threats: earthquakes and sea level rise. … These dual threats present enormous challenges to the future of the historic waterfront.”

endangered historic places Reference: "11 Most Endangered Places 2016": https://savingplaces.org/collections/11-most-endangered-2016 Viewed 10/18/2018.

Flood waters regularly encroach into the area due to high tides and storm surge. These high water levels threaten landmarks, transportation systems, and other infrastructure.

Sea Level Change, collage of Embarcadero infrastructure and flooding

Left: Embarcadero Station, one of the busiest stations in the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system. Upper right: The Ferry Building, an office building, marketplace, and station for ferries that cross the bay. Lower right: King tides at the San Francisco sea wall in the Embarcadero.

busiest stations Reference: Bay Area Rapid Transit: Ridership Reports. http://www.bart.gov/about/reports/ridership. Downloaded 10/18/2018.

Wise planning is needed for the Embarcadero area to remain resilient. How would you identify the vulnerabilities of infrastructure in the Embarcadero district?

The key to wise, long-term planning in relation to sea level rise is to visualize potential future water-level scenarios that may impact a project’s function or stability. These scenarios must consider not only rising sea levels, but also tides and storm surge.

Developing multiple future water-level scenarios for a project is a multi-step process. Several online tools can assist in this process, including USACE’s Sea Level Change Calculator and NOAA’s Sea Level Rise Viewer.

USACE United States Army Corps of Engineers

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Sea Level Change, graphic showing process of scenario-based planning for sea level change.

This lesson introduces these tools and the concepts behind using scenario-based planning for sea level rise. As an example, we’ll walk through a model project located in the Embarcadero.