Preparing Hydro-climate Inputs for Climate Change in Water Resource Planning

Preparing Hydro-climate Inputs for Climate Change in Water Resource Planning
  1. Determine weather and climate processes that are relevant to the client’s long-term questions about surface hydrology or crop irrigation requirements.
  2. Explain climate change process and recognize terminology
    1. Distinguish between weather and climate
    2. Distinguish between natural climate variability and climate change
    3. Explain emissions scenario versus climate change scenarios
    4. Justify use of climate projection information in study
  3. Identify and explain issues associated with model resolution and regionalizing, especially with respect to downscaling and bias correction.
  4. Locate relevant climate projection information and model data (that may or may not have been downscaled and bias-corrected)
    1. Explain what BCSD data are.
  5. Evaluate the utility of projection information in portraying the relevant processes; defend the approach taken for downscaling and bias correction
    1. Differentiate between dynamic and statistical downscaling
    2. Explain possible limitations of bias correction procedure using bias correction factors derived in historical period
  6. Make big-picture decisions on how climate projections will be incorporated into the report
    1. Identify relevant climate periods (historical  and future periods)
    2. Identify sources of uncertainty in the data
  7. Assess the central tendency and spread of projected changes in precipitation and temperature over the region of interest
    1. Choose appropriate time steps for characterizing general climate trends as manifested by precipitation and temperature.
    2. Evaluate central tendency of temperature and precipitation trends for all model projections taken together.
    3. Choose the period change method.
    4. Determine how you will define spread.
  8. Determine climate change scenarios and select projections to inform each climate change scenario
    1. Explain advantages and disadvantages of defining climate change scenarios informed by single projections versus being informed by an ensemble of projections
  9. Develop monthly climate-adjusted weather inputs for future surface water hydrology analysis (or crop irrigation requirements) that reflect an appropriate blend of historical observations with simulated trends.
    1. Recognize attributes of the observed weather inputs used to develop the climate adjusted weather inputs.
    2. Prepare scenarios of future weather inputs corresponding to climate change scenarios, that reflect variability from the observed weather and trends from climate simulations.
    3. Prepare results using both the Delta (single projection informed) and ensemble informed Delta methods.
  10. Disaggregate monthly climate-adjusted weather inputs into daily climate-adjusted weather inputs.