The chapter describes the challenges of tropical weather forecasting. We examine types of observations and weather analysis techniques used by tropical forecasters. Those analysis tools are applied to examples of tropical synoptic weather systems as well as mesoscale analysis and nowcasting. The last three sections focus on numerical weather prediction (NWP) including: the fundamentals, data assimilation, comparisons of statistical and dynamical models, ensemble techniques, cumulus convection in NWP, tropical cyclone prediction, and methods of forecast verification and validation. We have special focus sections on Australian-Indonesia Monsoon weather and interviews with forecasters from the National Hurricane Center (audio in English and Spanish), and Tropical Cyclone Centre Météo-France/La Réunion (text in English and French).
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At the end of this chapter, you should be able to:
- Discuss the unique challenges of weather forecasting in the tropics
- Describe types and methods of accessing weather observations in the tropics including: Point (surface and upper air), Radar (few ground-based, TRMM PR), geostationary satellites (clouds, surface, soundings ), low earth orbiting satellites (precipitation, winds, water vapor, pollutants, lightning), GPS satellite soundings
- Discuss the advantages and weaknesses of different types of observations
- Describe sources of observation error
- Perform synoptic-scale analysis using streamlines, velocity potential, satellite images
- Identify major tropical features such as the ITCZ, Monsoon trough, and TUTTs
- Interpret radar and satellite imagery for mesoscale analysis and nowcasting
- Understand the conservation principles and associated equations
- Describe at least one method of data assimilation
- List sources of numerical model errors
- Describe characteristics of dynamical models
- Describe characteristics of statistical/inductive models
- Describe characteristics of dynamical-statistical models
- Explain what constitutes an ensemble forecast
- Describe strength and weaknesses of tools used to interpret ensemble forecasts
- Compare the relative advantages and disadvantages of these different types of models
- Explain the rationale for cumulus parameterization schemes
- Describe at least two types of commonly used cumulus parameterization schemes
- Describe the general characteristic of and rationale for cloud resolving models
- List factors that control tropical cyclone motion and intensity
- Provide a basic description of at least one statistical models used for tropical cyclone prediction
- Provide a basic description of at least two dynamical models used for tropical cyclone prediction
- Understand the basics of how ensemble techniques are applied to tropical cyclone prediction
- Describe techniques used to verify and validate tropical weather forecasts
- Discuss their advantages and inadequacies
Tropical weather forecasting, Tropical Weather Analysis, Stream function, Velocity potential, Streamlines and Isotachs, Observation error, Radar analysis, Satellite mesoscale analysis, Equatorial trough, ITCZ, MJO, Equatorial waves, Tropical upper tropospheric trough, TUTT, Monsoon depression, Easterly wave, Cold front, Subtropical cyclone, Tropical temperate troughs, TTT, tropical squall line, Ensemble mean and spread, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), Dynamical models, Australian-Indonesia Monsoon, active monsoon, suppressed monsoon, Tropical cyclone prediction, Cumulus Parameterization, Data assimilation, Consensus model, Statistical model, Statistical-dynamical model, Forecast verification, Marine Weather analysis, CAPE, CIN
February 15 2016: HTML and media assets in this lesson have been updated for current browsers and mobile devices. All links external to COMET's MetEd site have been checked and updated.
