Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition, Chapter 9: Observations, Analysis, and Prediction

Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition, Chapter 9: Observations, Analysis, and Prediction

At the end of this chapter, you should be able to:

  • Discuss the unique challenges of weather forecasting in the tropics
  • Describe types and methods of accessing weather observations in the tropics including: Point (surface and upper air), Radar (few ground-based, TRMM PR), geostationary satellites (clouds, surface, soundings ), low earth orbiting satellites (precipitation, winds, water vapor, pollutants, lightning), GPS satellite soundings
  • Discuss the advantages and weaknesses of different types of observations
  • Describe sources of observation error
  • Perform synoptic-scale analysis using streamlines, velocity potential, satellite images
  • Identify major tropical features such as the ITCZ, Monsoon trough, and TUTTs
  • Interpret radar and satellite imagery for mesoscale analysis and nowcasting
  • Understand the conservation principles and associated equations
  • Describe at least one method of data assimilation
  • List sources of numerical model errors
  • Describe characteristics of dynamical models
  • Describe characteristics of statistical/inductive models
  • Describe characteristics of dynamical-statistical models
  • Explain what constitutes an ensemble forecast
  • Describe strength and weaknesses of tools used to interpret ensemble forecasts
  • Compare the relative advantages and disadvantages of these different types of models
  • Explain the rationale for cumulus parameterization schemes
  • Describe at least two types of commonly used cumulus parameterization schemes
  • Describe the general characteristic of and rationale for cloud resolving models
  • List factors that control tropical cyclone motion and intensity
  • Provide a basic description of at least one statistical models used for tropical cyclone prediction
  • Provide a basic description of at least two dynamical models used for tropical cyclone prediction
  • Understand the basics of how ensemble techniques are applied to tropical cyclone prediction
  • Describe techniques used to verify and validate tropical weather forecasts
  • Discuss their advantages and inadequacies