Effective Use of High-Resolution Models

Effective Use of High-Resolution Models

High-resolution models have transitioned from research into forecast operations, helping forecasters utilize additional mesoscale information after accounting for the inherent unpredictability of many small-scale phenomena. This module covers the major capabilities and limitations of models run without a convective parameterization using grid spacings of around 4 km or less. Model forecast interpretation issues are discussed, including introducing convective mode diagnostics such as updraft helicity and interpreting the forecast as an event prediction rather than as a precise point forecast. Many examples are shown and twenty interactions engage the reader throughout the module.