Interpretation of Global Forecast Model 'Flipflops'

Interpretation of Global Forecast Model 'Flipflops'
All forecasters are familiar with occasional run-to-run changes in forecast direction that occur with medium-range (and sometimes even short-range) forecasts in the Global Forecast Model (aka AVN/MRF). This case describes two recent model "flipflops" in a pair of time-adjacent operational MRF runs, and shows how MRF ensemble forecasts shed light on what is actually going on in the operational MRF seasons.