"Writing TAFs for Winter Weather" is the fourth unit in the Distance Learning Aviation Course 2 (DLAC2) series on producing TAFs that meet the needs of the aviation community. In addition to providing information about tools for diagnosing winter weather and its related impacts, the module extends the Practically Perfect TAF (PPTAF) process to address an airport’s operational thresholds. By understanding the thresholds at airports for which they produce TAFs, forecasters will be better able to produce a PPTAF. The unit also examines how to communicate effectively the logic and uncertainty using the aviation forecast discussion (AvnFD) and addresses maintaining an effective TAF weather watch and updating the TAF proactively.
• Understand the importance of accurate and timely winter-type precipitation forecasts from the various users' perspective;
• Identify the most effective tools/products/data to limit uncertainty in forecasts for freezing rain, mixed precipitation, snow, and blowing snow;
• Create a PPTAF that meets customer needs for airport (s) in case examples;
• Issue effective TAFs proactively for freezing rain, mixed precipitation, snow, blowing snow, or any combination of these elements on an event-driven basis;
• Make decisions about potential weather changes and expressing ceiling, visibility, and precipitation intensity appropriately in the TAF
• Consult conditional climatology and AVNFPS to mitigate uncertainty
• Recognize winter weather precipitation changes and events timing that necessitate an update to the TAF
• Make effective use of guidance products (i.e., Aviation Forecast Discussions) to express uncertainty about these phenomena;
• Ensure terminal forecasts are consistent with your office's watch and warning, local forecast, and guidance products as well as similar products from national centers;
• Demonstrate the ability to collaborate effectively when preparing a terminal forecast
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