Techniques in Hydrologic Forecast Verification

Techniques in Hydrologic Forecast Verification
National Weather Service, NWS, verification, hydrologic forecast verification, Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, QPF, climatology, hydrologic forecasts, stage height forecasts, flow forecast, Interactive Verification Program, IVP, Ensemble Verification System, EVS, River Forecast Center, RFC, deterministic forecast, ensemble flow forecasts, ensemble QPF, ensemble members, ensemble spread, forecast distribution, ensemble mean, box plot, underspread, overspread, Mean Absolute Error, MAE, Mean Error, ME, bias, scatter plot, forecast correlation, correlation coefficient, overforecast, underforecast, forecast skill, skill score, Root Mean Squared Error, RMSE, median, Mean Continuous Ranked Probability Score, MCRPS, Mean Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score, MCRPSS, forecast reliability, MCRPS reliability, Spread-bias Diagram, Cumulative Talgrand, Relative Operating Characteristic, ROC, ROC score, forecast discrimination, forecast confidence, basin aggregation, fast-response basin, medium-response basin, slow-response basin, QPF-based ensembles, climatologically-based QPF, headwater, downstream, mean areal precipitation, MAP, hydrologic response time, sample size, runtime modifications, MODS, persistence forecast, National Precipitation Verification Unit, NPVU, Juniata River, precipitation ensembles, Ensemble Pre-Processor, EPP, non-exceedance probability, standard deviation