Techniques in Hydrologic Forecast Verification

Techniques in Hydrologic Forecast Verification
  1. Understand how to develop a technique for verifying hydrologic forecasts.
  2. Apply knowledge of verification scores to real hydrologic forecast case studies.
  3. Develop meaningful and specific questions to be explored with hydrologic verification (for example: How does QPF in the hydrologic model impact the hydrologic forecasts?).
  4. Develop meaningful subsets of data to more fully understand forecast performance based on forecast variables like lead time, basin characteristics, and event magnitude.
  5. Evaluate forecast data characteristics important to verification (for example: sample size and data distribution).
  6. Verify different aspects of hydrologic forecast performance (for example: error, bias, calibration, skill, correlation, reliability, discrimination, and confidence).
  7. Identify sources of error and uncertainty in the forecast process.
  8. Become familiar with some of the uses of NWS verification tools.