Techniques in Hydrologic Forecast Verification

Techniques in Hydrologic Forecast Verification
This module demonstrates techniques for developing a hydrologic forecast verification effort. Although it can be taken as stand-alone training, the module on Introduction to Verification of Hydrologic Forecasts is intended a useful prerequisite. Through the use of rich illustrations, case study examples, and review questions, this module provides an example of developing a verification effort using NWS verification tools. Two case studies will be highlighted that both look at the primary question of whether QPF input to hydrologic models improves the hydrologic forecasts. Related questions of QPF's impact on hydrologic forecasts are explored that include considerations of basin characteristics, forecast lead time, and event magnitude. One case will look at verification of deterministic stage height forecasts using the Interactive Verification Program (IVP) at the Ohio River Forecast Center (OHRFC). The other case will look at the verification of ensemble flow forecasts using the Ensemble Verification System (EVS) at the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC).