The NCEP Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) Ensemble Global Ocean Wave Forecast System (EGOWaFS) provides five-day forecasts of global winds, wind wave and swell conditions in probabilistic terms. This product became available early in 2007 both through an NCEP non-operational web page and, for raw data, through FTP for use by marine forecasters at NWS WFOs and other locations. The data from the EGOWaFS can be used in a number of ways, including:* As input to probabilistic marine forecasts for wind waves and swell* As input to a local wave ensemble, such as Simulated Waves Nearshore (SWAN)* As input to develop probabilistic forecasts for rip current developmentThis webcast has been developed to introduce the EGOWaFS to the marine forecasting community. Topics discussed include:
- The unique basis for ensemble prediction of ocean waves
- Graphics of EGOWaFS product output and their interpretation
- Case examples showing examples of EGOWaFS, including:
- Potential for EGOWaFS forecast bias resulting from systematic errors in wind forcing,
- Use of EGOWaFS data to provide boundary conditions for local near-shore wave models, and
- Application of EGOWaFS data to create a probabilistic forecast for the occurrence of rip currents.