Wave Ensembles in the Marine Forecast Process

Wave Ensembles in the Marine Forecast Process
The NCEP Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) Ensemble Global Ocean Wave Forecast System (EGOWaFS) provides five-day forecasts of global winds, wind wave and swell conditions in probabilistic terms. This product became available early in 2007 both through an NCEP non-operational web page and, for raw data, through FTP for use by marine forecasters at NWS WFOs and other locations. The data from the EGOWaFS can be used in a number of ways, including:* As input to probabilistic marine forecasts for wind waves and swell* As input to a local wave ensemble, such as Simulated Waves Nearshore (SWAN)* As input to develop probabilistic forecasts for rip current developmentThis webcast has been developed to introduce the EGOWaFS to the marine forecasting community. Topics discussed include:
  • The unique basis for ensemble prediction of ocean waves
  • Graphics of EGOWaFS product output and their interpretation
  • Case examples showing examples of EGOWaFS, including:
    • Potential for EGOWaFS forecast bias resulting from systematic errors in wind forcing,
    • Use of EGOWaFS data to provide boundary conditions for local near-shore wave models, and
    • Application of EGOWaFS data to create a probabilistic forecast for the occurrence of rip currents.