- Languages: English, Spanish
- Publish Date: 2007-06-12
- Skill Level: 2
- Completion Time: 1.50 - 2.00 h
- Includes Audio: yes
- Required Plugins: none
- Included in Courses:
Basic Hydrologic Sciences Distance Learning Course
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- Describe hydrologic conditions in the Susquehanna River basin preceding the events associated with the remnants of Hurricane Ivan in the Susquehanna River Basin on the 17-19 September 2004.
- Describe the local geography and its impact on storm runoff
- Use climatology as a reference for potential storm impacts
- Describe soil texture, soil profile, and ground cover conditions for the region
- Analyze antecedent soil moisture levels for the area
- Analyze the observed and forecast rainfall, current factors influencing runoff, and the initial river forecasts for the Susquehanna River preceding this event.
- Analyze rainfall and soil information and anticipate the impact on runoff
- Interpret runoff information from river models
- Anticipate how errors in the QPF may impact the magnitude of runoff
- Apply knowledge of runoff processes and river modeling to observed and historic streamflows to develop a forecast for the Susquehanna River at Wilkes-Barre for this event.
- Analyze and anticipate dominant runoff mechanisms during a developing flood event
- Examine the relative contributions from different components of the forecast hydrograph
- Examine how changes in precipitation can influence the expected crest
- Analyze how precipitation forecast errors impact runoff forecast errors
- Anticipate the impact of runoff that is routed from upstream areas
- Use observations and historic information to assess the likelihood of the predicted extreme event
- Interpret and adjust guidance from river forecasting models
- Issue a river forecast despite uncertainties
- Appreciate how forecaster experience can play a very important role in the forecast process.
- Assess lessons learned during the forecast process leading up to and during this flood event.
- Validate how the river forecast model did for the peak stage
- Interpret how the different components of the river model contributed to the forecast and its errors
- Explain the important role of accurate stage-discharge relationships
- Relate this event to previous major flood events