The “Introduction to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction” module provides basic information on probabilistic streamflow forecasting. In this webcast, Dr. Richard Koehler, the National Hydrologic Sciences Training Coordinator for NOAA's NWS, presents information about the types of organizations that might use probabilistic streamflow forecasts as well as foundation concepts and background for ESP methods. The module begins with a brief review of hydrologic models including deterministic, stochastic, and scenario-based approaches. It then provides an overview of time-series approaches including a summary of traditional techniques such as flood frequency, flood analysis, statistical analysis, and trend analysis. Finally, the module presents the basics of ESP techniques including an explanation of its strengths, weaknesses, and appropriate application. The module also provides guidance on how to interpret ensemble forecast products.
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Describe terminology and definitions for Ensemble Streamflow Prediction, or ESP:
- Use standard language to describe ESP.
- Explain what time series, realizations, and ensembles represent.
- Describe basic processes using output from scenario-based deterministic models and traditional streamflow analysis methods.
Describe methods and techniques used in ESP:
- Describe current modeling methods and tools used in trace plots.
- Describe product output from ESP.
- Describe use of verification of ESP products.
hydrology, ensemble streamflow prediction, ESP, probabilistic streamflow forecast, hydrologic models, deterministic, stochastic, scenario-based models, time series, forecast uncertainty, realization, exceedance probability, model forcings, historic simulation, conditional simulation, verification, trace plots, flood mapping
