This webcast is a shorter companion to the Ensemble Prediction Explained module, focusing more directly on immediate operational needs. Introductory content includes the role of ensemble forecasts, presentation of basic ensemble forecasting terms, and discussion of how ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) are created. The largest section is focused on common ensemble forecast products, including how they differ from traditional NWP products, how we interpret ensemble forecast products, the advantages and limitations of each product, how EPS products are verified, and how to use ensemble products in conjunction with one another to increase your understanding of forecast uncertainty. Finally, three brief cases from cold and warm seasons illustrate the use of ensemble products in the forecast process.
State the benefits of including ensemble model forecasts in the NWP product suite.
Define the following terms used in ensemble forecasting:
Ensemble perturbation
Ensemble member
Control forecast
Perturbation forecast
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)
Describe three methods commonly used to produce the members of an EPS.
Describe how ensemble forecast products differ from traditional NWP products.
Interpret ensemble forecast products to determine the probabilistic EPS forecast.
Interpret spaghetti plots, mean and spread plots, probability of exceedance plots, most likely or dominant event plots, plume diagrams, box and whisker diagrams, and ensemble soundings.
State advantages and limitations to each of the above products.
Use ensemble products in conjunction with one another to increase your understanding of forecast uncertainty.
Use ensemble verification products to evaluate the performance of an EPS, including reliability and Talagrand diagrams.
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