pwarupi40 2018-03-19 19:28:03

Best practical course to use daily in the forecasting.

Lhweather 2018-03-10 13:27:17

The lesson contains very useful information, and presents a solid foundation for ensemble weather prediction.

ignacy 2018-02-02 04:34:12

the course explains many features nicely. what is most important, the final quiz forces to think, and by retaking it, allows to take most out of the course. I really appreciate this possibility.

Geeyermo 2017-07-10 14:58:10

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MeteoCampillos 2015-11-15 12:01:32

Very nice lesson about Ensemble Prediction.

1. State the benefits of including ensemble model forecasts in the NWP product suite.
2. Define the following terms used in ensemble forecasting:
* Ensemble perturbation
* Ensemble member
* Control forecast
* Perturbation forecast
* Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)
3. Describe three methods commonly used to produce the members of an EPS.
4. Describe how ensemble forecast products differ from traditional NWP products.
5. Interpret ensemble forecast products to determine the probabilistic EPS forecast.
* Interpret spaghetti plots, mean and spread plots, probability of exceedance plots, most likely or dominant event plots, plume diagrams, box and whisker diagrams, and ensemble soundings.
* State advantages and limitations to each of the above products.
6. Use ensemble products in conjunction with one another to increase your understanding of forecast uncertainty.
7. Use ensemble verification products to evaluate the performance of an EPS, including reliability and Talagrand diagrams.

ensemble products, ensemble forecasting, numerical weather prediction, chaos theory, EPS, NWP, numerical modeling, NCEP EPS, probabilistic forecasting, verification, nwp products