This module, the latest in our series on Numerical Weather Prediction, covers the theory and use of ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). The module will help forecasters develop an understanding of the basis for EPSs, the skills to interpret ensemble products, and strategies for their use in the forecast process. It contains six sections: an Introduction that briefly presents background theory; Generation, which describes how ensemble systems are constructed; Statistical Concepts, which provides a brief refresher on knowledge required for ensemble product interpretation; Summarizing Data, which describes common ensemble forecast products; Verification, which discusses how EPSs performance is assessed and documented; and Case Applications, which provides links to a number of forecast cases illustrating the use of EPSs in the forecast process. Questions and Exercises are offered throughout to help you test your learning and provide practical examples. The module also includes a pre-assessment and module final quiz.
ensemble forecasting, numerical weather prediction, chaos theory, EPS, NWP, numerical modeling, NCEP EPS, probabilistic forecasting, verification, nwp products
December 2020 - The lesson was updated to current internet standards (mp4/html5), with no changes to content.
July 2014: This lesson presents the theoretical basis for ensemble prediction systems (EPS) and the derived products that come from them. For winter and summer case examples, see this lesson's less detailed companion, "Introduction to Ensemble Prediction".
Training since this lesson's publication has incorporated operational forecast EPS applications where appropriate. Examples are in "NWP Training Series Course 2: Using and adding value to NWP in the forecast process", and other lessons on practical applications of EPS (e.g. "Ensemble Applications in Winter").