Probabilistic Forecasting of Winter Weather: HREF Applications

Probabilistic Forecasting of Winter Weather: HREF Applications

After completing this lesson the learner will be able to:

  1. Describe the model components in the EMC HREF
  2. List the types of products currently provided for winter weather guidance
  3. Describe the following statistical concepts
    • Percentiles / Probability of Exceedance
    • Conditional vs Unconditional Ptype Probability
    • Point Probability / Neighborhood probabilities / Ensemble Agreement Scale (EAS)
  4. Apply HREF products to a forecast problem