During this presentation, Dr. Brad Colman (NOAA/NWS) covers both the philosophical and methodological approaches to weather forecasting in general, with a special emphasis on challenges introduced in areas of complex terrain. The insightful comments made by the presenter regarding recommended approaches to applying conceptual models, mesoscale model output, and decision trees in the forecast process are useful to anyone who predicts the weather.
• Review the forecast process.
• Become aware of the challenges of forecasting in the diverse terrain of the Western U.S.
• Review the characteristics of mesoscale circulations.
• Describe the impact of complex terrain on simple geostrophic flow.
• Compare and contrast objective and subjective forecasting techniques.
Challenges of Forecasting in the West
July 2014: The concepts presented in this module are very useful, but older NWP model data (Eta and NGM) are not entirely representative of current NWP model guidance. Recordings from the 2008 COMET/MSC Mountain Weather Workshop (https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=878) offer a more up-to-date lesson on this topic.
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