Interpreting and Communicating EPS Guidance: Iberian Heat Wave

Interpreting and Communicating EPS Guidance: Iberian Heat Wave
  • Determine the appropriate EPS temperature forecast product based on lead-time and forecast parameter
  • Interpret EPS temperature forecast guidance to assess local heat wave threat
    • Determine if temperatures will meet any of AEMET’s 3-color risk levels and special heat wave warning criteria
      • Determine if temperatures could reach critical levels
      • Determine potential magnitude of the temperatures
      • Determine the timing of extreme temperatures (onset and duration)
      • Determine the areal coverage of extreme temperatures
  • Communicate the forecast uncertainties and potential impacts of heat wave to end users
    • Use best practices that enable user understanding of probabilistic weather information and incorporate user needs