After completing the lesson, you should be able to:
- Describe how ensemble tools are used to support the assessment of extreme weather event forecasts.
- Describe the ESAT, including data sources, forecast elements, and pressure levels
- Describe the ESAT products and the statistical concepts and definitions needed to make intelligent use of ensemble tools, including:
- Probability in the context of integrating ensembles in the forecast process
- Reanalysis and R-Climate, and reforecasting and M-Climate, and their use in predicting extreme events
- Verification of probabilistic forecast products, which involves interpreting reliability diagrams