Weather Forecast Uncertainty Information for Everyday Users - Presentation at 2015 Workshop on Communicating Uncertainty to Users of Weather Forecasts

Weather Forecast Uncertainty Information for Everyday Users - Presentation at 2015 Workshop on Communicating Uncertainty to Users of Weather Forecasts

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NMorock 2017-01-10 18:45:49

I found this talk to be absolutely fascinating in the way the studies were designed to answer the questions and in the outcomes. Anyone who has to communicate forecasts to the public should take 30 minutes to gain a better understanding of how uncertainty can help or hurt depending on how it is expressed.
rballard 2016-05-18 12:31:50

Excellent presentation and great study! For NWSers, this gets to the heart of what IDSS is all about. 1. Answering the question, "Do users actually make better decisions with deterministic, single-value forecasts, or with ranges that incorporate uncertainty?" 2. Exploring what are the best ways to communicate that forecast uncertainty, given that all forecasts have error 3. Understanding and being aware of significant user action thresholds (particularly those of our core partners, who are spending money based on what we are [or are not] forecasting) 4. Finding specific ways to most effectively communicate forecast uncertainty so that users can make the best decisions