Communicating Forecast Uncertainty

Communicating Forecast Uncertainty

This scenario-based lesson introduces the topic of communicating forecast uncertainty to decision-makers, such as emergency managers, related industry professionals, the public, and other end-users. In a case that spans the lesson, learners begin by developing a forecast discussion using deterministic data, refine it with probabilistic ensemble data, and evaluate how well it conveys uncertainty information. Then they assume several end-user roles, assessing how well the forecast discussion addresses their needs. From there, important research findings on communicating uncertainty are discussed. In the lesson’s culminating section, learners apply the findings as several decision-makers call the forecast office, requesting specific weather information. The lesson is intended for experienced forecasters knowledgeable about mid-latitude weather regimes, although it will be of interest to the academic community as well.