This lesson introduces users to the five different guidance products that will be included in Version 1.0 of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) National Blend of global Models (NBM). The primary audience for this lesson includes forecasters and users of NWS forecast products; some prior knowledge of numerical weather prediction is useful. Learners will explore how model guidance from the Global Forecast System, Global Ensemble Forecast System, Canadian Meteorological Centre Ensemble, Ensemble Kernel Density Model Output Statistics (MOS) and gridded GFS MOS is produced. The strengths and limitations of interpolation processes will also be discussed.
Two new direct model output sources have been added for version 2 of the National Blend of Global Models (NBM): the North American Mesoscale Model and the North American Mesoscale Model Nests. These two sources provide additional data for Blend forecasts of various weather elements across different domains. Updated details of forecast frequency, resolution, data assimilation technique and other features for all direct model output sources are described. Future developments to improve the Blend and expand its suite of forecast elements are discussed at the end of the lesson.
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