Tropical Cyclone Forecast Uncertainty

Tropical Cyclone Forecast Uncertainty
  • Explain the information displayed in the cone of uncertainty and its appropriate use
    • Identify common misconceptions about the use of the cone of uncertainty
  • Describe the influence that track and intensity errors have on potential tropical cyclone impacts
    • Describe how errors in forecast motion (direction and forward speed) are determined and make up track location and timing errors
    • Explain why NHC track forecasts for tropical depressions and weak tropical storms are less accurate than those for hurricanes
    • Determine how often a track forecast error is larger than the distance between a tropical cyclone and a location of interest
  • At long lead times, communicate the forecast in broader terms due to forecast uncertainty