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Tropical Cyclone Forecast Uncertainty

Tropical Cyclone Forecast Uncertainty
  • Explain the information displayed in the cone of uncertainty and its appropriate use
    • Describe a common misconception about the use of the cone of uncertainty
  • Describe the influence of track, timing, and intensity errors on the potential tropical cyclone impacts
    • Describe how errors in direction and timing are determined and make up the track error
    • Explain why NHC forecasts for tropical depressions and weak tropical storms are less accurate than those for hurricanes
    • Determine how often a track forecast error is larger than the distance between a tropical cyclone and a location of interest
  • At long lead times, communicate the forecast in broader terms due to forecast uncertainty