This lesson introduces learners to the uncertainty and errors in forecasting the track, timing, and intensity of tropical cyclones. It provides an overview of how the National Hurricane Center’s cone of uncertainty is constructed, as well as its uses and common misconceptions. Learners will explore the influences of track, timing, and intensity forecast errors on potential tropical cyclones impacts. The lesson offers suggestions on how to communicate tropical cyclone forecasts knowing their inherent uncertainty.
Explain the information displayed in the cone of uncertainty and its appropriate use
Identify common misconceptions about the use of the cone of uncertainty
Describe the influence that track and intensity errors have on potential tropical cyclone impacts
Describe how errors in forecast motion (direction and forward speed) are determined and make up track location and timing errors
Explain why NHC track forecasts for tropical depressions and weak tropical storms are less accurate than those for hurricanes
Determine how often a track forecast error is larger than the distance between a tropical cyclone and a location of interest
At long lead times, communicate the forecast in broader terms due to forecast uncertainty
tropical cyclone, errors, track forecasting, intensity forecasting, track errors, intensity errors, timing errors, cone of uncertainty, track cone, National Hurricane Center, forecast uncertainty
October 2018
The module was updated to reflect the current state of the NHC and NWS products related to the cone of uncertainty and the latest NHC forecast verification information.
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