bmarcotte_6558 2018-09-14 12:35:03

great

osvaldo guzmán 2018-06-09 15:14:43

ok

obejosel 2018-02-28 19:02:32

Informative and well-explained

navinsinghweather 2017-08-10 01:24:57

This module did an excellent job of describing how to communicate uncertainty in tropical cyclone forecasts, as well as the average errors for tropical cyclone forecasts at given times.

Zachdanney 2017-06-26 20:46:59

Simple, easy, and straight to the point. One of the most effective modules in my opinion.

WHCCtechvolunteer 2017-06-21 06:25:36

Contains information on NWS forecast products. Some of the information is a little outdated as the NWS has recently updated some of the forecast products including the cone of uncertainty. 5 stars.

Geowx 2017-06-04 07:29:22

ggalaski 2017-02-01 09:49:46

What I am realizing taking these courses is that forecasting is defined by possibilities supported by computer models, and other forecasting tools. There is nothing definitive before damage occurs until after the storm.

LotharIrausquin 2016-12-21 09:25:52

Great Module

woodardjen2016 2016-10-07 14:03:00

it was very informative

woodardjen2016 2016-10-07 14:02:59

it was very informative

JackParrish 2015-09-17 08:06:39

Very nicely organized and quick module that characterizes the makeup, intent and misconceptions about the NHC tropical cyclone forecast uncertainty cone. It should be useful to anyone who makes use of this NHC product.

mwave 2015-09-16 10:46:43

Nice, concise course with the key points repeated throughout. Time to complete course was as advertised. Gave me a better understanding of the 'cone-of-uncertainty' and the errors inherent in tropical system forecasts. -Mark Niles

• Explain the information displayed in the cone of uncertainty and its appropriate use
  • Identify common misconceptions about the use of the cone of uncertainty
• Describe the influence that track and intensity errors have on potential tropical cyclone impacts
  • Describe how errors in forecast motion (direction and forward speed) are determined and make up track location and timing errors
  • Explain why NHC track forecasts for tropical depressions and weak tropical storms are less accurate than those for hurricanes
  • Determine how often a track forecast error is larger than the distance between a tropical cyclone and a location of interest
• At long lead times, communicate the forecast in broader terms due to forecast uncertainty

tropical cyclone, errors, track forecasting, intensity forecasting, track errors, intensity errors, timing errors, cone of uncertainty, track cone, National Hurricane Center, forecast uncertainty

October 2018 The module was updated to reflect the current state of the NHC and NWS products related to the cone of uncertainty and the latest NHC forecast verification information.