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Determining the Onset and Risk of Tropical Cyclone Winds

Determining the Onset and Risk of Tropical Cyclone Winds

After completing this lesson, you will be able to:

  • Explain how TC wind speed probability products account for forecast uncertainty.
  • Identify the four TC wind speed probability products that are available.
  • Explain how TC track, intensity, and size uncertainties are incorporated in the creation of TC wind speed probabilities.
  • Explain how TC wind speed probability products are created.
  • Identify the additional information that TC wind speed probabilities provide when compared with the cone of uncertainty.
  • Determine whether to use onset or cumulative wind speed probabilities when addressing customer-specific needs.
  • Determine the most likely and earliest reasonable time of onset for peak TC winds for any location.