Use of Probabilistic Guidance in Local Tropical Cyclone Wind Forecasting

Use of Probabilistic Guidance in Local Tropical Cyclone Wind Forecasting

After completing the lesson, you will be able to:

  • Assess the most likely time of onset for tropical-storm-force winds (> 34 knots) for any location within a WFO’s area of responsibility; repeat for hurricane-force winds (> 64 knots).
  • Assess the most likely time of onset for the strongest winds of the event for any location within a WFO’s area of responsibility.
  • Convey uncertainty information about the wind forecast at a particular location as influenced by potential errors in the forecast track, intensity, and size of an approaching TC.
  • Recognize the potential wind impacts of a TC upon a WFO’s area of responsibility, and derive an appropriate wind message for societal response.
  • Incorporate partner and user needs into NWS products and services to enable more effective decision-making.
  • Proactively communicate with forecasters in other offices to ensure that a consistent message is created and communicated to the public