Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge

Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge
  • Explain how probabilistic surge guidance is created, and why it is preferred to deterministic-only surge guidance for specific events, given the assumptions and potential errors associated with deterministic predictions.
  • Explain the different forms of probabilistic storm surge guidance, and describe the purpose and use of each.
  • Explain how the Maximum Envelope of Water (MEOW) and Maximum of the MEOW (MOM) are developed, and describe their purpose and use.
  • Use surge guidance and output in its various forms (i.e. MEOWs, MOMs, Probabilistic Storm Surge) and at various phases of the event.