Nowcasting for Aviation in Africa summarizes techniques and best practices for developing area-specific forecasts at very short (0-6 hour) timescales. This 1-hour lesson presents a case study focused on interpreting threats and communicating correct warning information for a weather event affecting multiple airports in Gauteng Province, South Africa. In completing the lesson, the learner will assess the state of the atmosphere, develop a nowcast, monitor conditions, and update/create appropriate nowcast products for aviation stakeholders.
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- Describe the challenges of nowcasting versus developing regular forecasts
- Explain the steps involved in creating a nowcast
- Explain the need to build climatologies that including synoptic and wind regimes conducive to convection as well as preferential regions for storm formation
- Create a nowcast for the 0-6 hr timeframe
- a. Use soundings to determine the stability and vertical structure of the atmosphere and its evolution as a weather event develops
- i. determine the temperature, dewpoint, and moisture values near the surface
- ii. determine how changes in synoptic features will contribute to/inhibit convection
- iii. determine whether the wind profile is favorable for strong convective events
- b. Use satellite imagery (including visible and infrared products) to corroborate/determine the stability of the atmosphere
- c. Identify the area of greatest concern and monitor the most frequently updated data sources from the area
- i.
monitor observations to make decisions about how the weather situation is changing
- Identify likely aviation hazards and how they may affect stakeholders
- Communicate the nowcast to stakeholders (issue warnings or prepare briefings)
- Determine how well the nowcast matches the actual event and document the case for climatology/improving heuristics
nowcast, short-term forecast, convective, current, weather, soundings, satellite, radar, numerical weather prediction, model, warning, wind gust, wind shear, thunderstorm, hail, lightning
