NWP Course 2, Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process, is the second course in the NWP training series, Effective Use of NWP in the Forecast Process. Course 2 contains material on using NWP in the forecast process. These lessons are accompanied by brief WES caselets to reinforce the operational application of key concepts. Each lesson is self-contained, so it can be taken when you have an hour of time available to devote to training. However, the lessons do represent a sequence, and thus should be taken in order. The lessons after the introduction cover single or multiple parts of the forecast process. A final synthesizing WES case will be provided to integrate all course content into a forecast context.
Goals and Objectives
At the end of this course, the student should be able to demonstrate how to effectively use NWP as part of the operational forecast process, including:
- identifying and conceptualizing problems of the day
- comparing observations to analysis and previous NWP forecasts
- deciding on plausible forecast evolutions, including through utilizing ensemble products and recent model performance
- applying various approaches to examining model data to gain insight on the forecast weather situation
- interpreting decisions that influence a final forecast
- recognizing opportunities for adding value (and/or saving time) and utilizing verification to identify such opportunities
Every day, the operational forecaster faces decisions on the usefulness or even the validity of numerical weather prediction (NWP) output and the associated statistical guidance. Forecasters must also decide if time invested improving model data is worth the return on that investment. The philosophy of the NWP training series is to provide the scientific underpinnings for assessing and using NWP forecasts as part of the general forecast process. This training helps forecasters "open the black box of NWP" and become better users of NWP in an operational context, where the forecast may make the difference in the protect of lives and property.
Course 1: NWP Basics and Background. This course includes a series of lessons on the architecture of an NWP model system. Additional training materials introduce tools such as downscaling and bias correction of NWP model output. Background material for emerging NWP tools will be placed in Course 1 in the future.
Course 2: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process. These lessons will be accompanied by brief WES caselets to reinforce the operational application of key concepts. Although each lesson is self-contained, the set does represent a sequence, and thus should be taken in order. A final synthesizing WES case will be provided to integrate all course content into a forecast context.
Course 3: NWP in the Era of Digital Forecast Preparation. In this course we address how model data can be best used in the production of gridded forecast products. Topics include starting points for grid editing, evaluating model data in the Graphical Forecast Editor versus the D2D display, and applying the forecast funnel approach when making high-resolution forecast products.
A key aspect of the forecast that is not covered in the NWP Training Series is communication to the public and other end-users. Communicating forecast uncertainty, the risk and effects of high-impact events, or other sociological aspects of the forecast, while important, are outside the scope of this series.