Frontal analysis in modern forecasting is still a critical part of a forecaster’s toolkit, and not just because fronts are often associated with precipitation. Fronts can strongly impact local weather conditions via wind changes, convective forcing, turbulence and more. While many computer-based weather visualization packages can identify frontal zones on the large scale, they usually lack nuance in positioning of the front on the regional and local scales, which poses issues for short-range forecasting of all kinds, especially aviation.
Additionally, a thorough examination of surface observations to create a hand-analysis of surface pressure systems and fronts, even if not truly completed “by hand” and instead in a 3D mental model space, allows the forecaster to become intimately familiar with the current weather in a way that examining a computer frontal analysis cannot. Situational awareness is gained, as well as conceptual awareness of synoptic processes, mesoscale processes, storm-scale processes and topographic influences that are interacting to create the “wiggles” one sometimes sees in a front’s position. These wiggles, or surges, can be caused by outflow from an MCS merging with the larger synoptic scale cold front, are sometimes powered by a secondary push of cold air that has mixed down from upper levels, and for other reasons. Although it takes more time up front in the forecast process, the knowledge gained from this analysis process often makes the rest of the forecast process go much faster - many extraneous pressure level charts of basic state variables can be skipped and the forecaster can go directly to regional and local scale variables of interest to address the forecast problems of day.