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To a forecaster, a good hurricane forecast is getting the location right within 50 miles and the wind speeds
within 8 mph in the period 12 hours before landfall. As an emergency manager, your idea of a good forecast would
be to know the location and intensity with 100% accuracy 72 hours ahead of time. That gap is the reality that underlies
decision making.
Why is it that forecasts are imperfect, and how do forecasters and emergency managers
take that uncertainty into account? By choosing Sources of Uncertainty in the diagram below, you will learn
what contributes to errors in today's forecasts and how large these errors are. Choose Solutions: Dealing with
Uncertainty to explore information and practices that can help you prepare for a hurricane threat.
Click one of the red boxes to investigate the topics further.
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