Text-Based Probability Product
The example below is a portion of a strike probability issued for Hurricane Georges in 1998. The rows in the table
are the locations, some of which are given in latitude and longitude and others by name. The different columns
(labeled "A","B", "C", "D") are probabilities at various forecast times
(listed at the bottom of the table in red). The column labeled "E" is the
sum of the probabilities in the four periods. According to this example, Key West FL had the highest probability (99%)of the hurricane passing within 75 mi (65 NM) and it was forecast to hit sometime between 11 a.m. EDT on Friday, September 25 (the current time) and 8 a.m. on Saturday, September 26. There was a 2% chance that the hurricane would hit the location GULF 29N 87W before 8 a.m. Saturday, but a 25% chance it would hit sometime between 8 a.m. Saturday and 8 p.m. Saturday . The 2% probability is low for a 24-hour forecast, but the 25% chance at about 36 hours is about as high as is possible. |
ZCZC MIASPFAT2 ALL
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT The information above is also available in a graphical form. |