Tropical cyclone discussions are intended for other forecasters to explain the rationale for the current forecast level of confidence. However, this information is also useful to decision makers. The discussions generally include Reasoning behind the forecast Techniques and guidance used Table of the 12-, 24-, 35-, 48-, and 72-hour positions and maximum wind speed Plans for watches and/or warnings Other meteorological decisions The forecaster's name The paragraph in red text discusses the results of the various computer models and highlights the challenge a forecaster faces in deciding which model is the best for the given situation. Forecast uncertainty is evident in the text in blue and is discussed in more detail in the Uncertainty section.

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 TTAA00 KNHC 240842 HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 24 1998 THE HURRICANE IS STILL CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND ESTIMATING THE LOCATION AND INITIAL MOTION IS DIFFICULT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10 BASED ON LIMITED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND A POORLY DEFINED CENTER ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ON NOAA AIRCRAFT RADAR AND ON A CUBAN RADAR. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE... THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND THE LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONTROLLING FACTORS AND ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE RADICALLY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CENTER MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR KEY WEST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND CONTINUING TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN 72 HOURS. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE...THE UKMET CHANGED LITTLE...THE NOGAPS MOVED TO THE RIGHT AND THE GFDL MOVED SLIGHTLY LEFT. THE LBAR IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE THREE MODELS JUST MENTIONED. THE AVIATION MODEL TURNS GEORGES NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA AND THE ETA AND NGM SHOW THIS ALSO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE GFDL...NOGAPS AND UKMET WOULD SUGGEST. A NOAA AIRCRAFT WIND REPORT OF 74 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER ALLOWS FOR GEORGES TO BE KEPT AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE WITH 65 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS HELD TOGETHER VERY WELL EVEN THOUGH THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE APPEARS DISORGANIZED. WITH A FORECAST OF NOT TOO MUCH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK COMBINED WITH WARM GULF WATERS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATER BY 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE REALIZED THAT OUR SKILL IN FORECASTING INTENSITY IS QUITE LIMITED COMPARED TO OUR TRACK FORECASTING SKILL. HAVING SAID ALL THAT...IT IS PRUDENT TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. I WOULD LOVE TO WAIT LONGER BEFORE ISSUING WARNINGS TO MINIMIZE SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED. A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A MINIMAL CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE THAT MIGHT STRENGTHEN IS NOT THE SAME KIND OF SITUATION AS HAVING A CATEGORY 3 OR 4 HURRICANE HEADING RIGHT AT THE WARNING AREA. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 21.1N 76.7W 65 KTS 12HR VT 24/1800Z 21.9N 78.1W 65 KTS 24HR VT 25/0600Z 23.3N 79.9W 70 KTS 36HR VT 25/1800Z 24.8N 81.8W 80 KTS 48HR VT 26/0600Z 26.2N 83.3W 85 KTS 72HR VT 27/0600Z 29.0N 86.0W 85 KTS