Forecasting: Uncertainty
What's Your Risk?


The tropical cyclone probability forecast assigns a probability of 14% to your location, with landfall expected in 72 hours. It takes 30 hours to evacuate your community. What should you be doing now?

  1. Nothing, the hurricane has an 86% chance of missing us.
  2. Call for an evacuation to begin in 42 hours.
  3. Begin contacting agency heads and elected officials to get them to start thinking about what they need to do if an evacuation is ordered in the next 2 days.