Question 2.

It is September 11th. Forecast confidence in the significant weather pattern change is moderate to high. Ensemble members continue to be in agreement about a large trough of low pressure swinging through the region, bringing widespread rain to all but far northwest Montana. Messaging to the fire community has described the overall pattern change. Details for individual fires and how each will be impacted are still in flux, as the ECMWF and GFS models differ in the placement of the heaviest precipitation. However, forecast models indicate the potential for a windy, dry event the day before the big pattern change to cool and wet. This could become a Red Flag event, although none have been issued at this point. You receive the following call from a Fire Behavior Analyst (FBAN):

How will you respond to the FBAN? Select the best answer.

Question 2.

It is September 11th. Forecast confidence is moderate to high and growing in the significant weather pattern change. Ensemble members continue to be in agreement about a large trough of low pressure swinging through the region, bringing widespread rain to all but far northwest Montana. Messaging has subsequently increased to the fire community regarding the overall pattern change. Details for individual fires and how each will be impacted are still in flux, as the ECMWF and GFS models differ in the placement of the heaviest precipitation. However, forecast models indicate the potential for a windy, dry event the day before the big pattern change to cool and wet. This has the potential to become a Red Flag event, although none have been issued at this point. You receive the following call from a Fire Behavior Analyst (FBAN):

How will you respond to the FBAN? Select the best answer.

Question 2.

It is September 11th. Forecast confidence is moderate to high and growing in the significant weather pattern change. Ensemble members continue to be in agreement about a large trough of low pressure swinging through the region, bringing widespread rain to all but far northwest Montana. Messaging has subsequently increased to the fire community regarding the overall pattern change. Details for individual fires and how each will be impacted are still in flux, as the ECMWF and GFS models differ in the placement of the heaviest precipitation. However, forecast models indicate the potential for a windy, dry event the day before the big pattern change to cool and wet. This has the potential to become a Red Flag event, though none have been issued at this point. You receive the following call from a Fire Behavior Analyst (FBAN):

How will you respond to the FBAN? Select the best answer.

Question 3.

It is September 13th. Forecast models continue to indicate a significant rain event starting by 12Z tomorrow. The GFS is indicating snow levels down to 6000 feet, though the NAM shows snow could accumulate as low as 4000 feet. NWS Missoula has issued a winter storm warning for elevations above 6000 feet based on the GFS, which has been more consistent. The FBAN at the Liberty Fire calls.

How will you respond to the FBAN? Select the best answer.

Question 3.

It is September 13th. Forecast models continue to indicate a significant rain event starting by 12Z tomorrow. The GFS is indicating snow levels down to 6000 feet, though the NAM shows snow could accumulate as low as 4000 feet. NWS Missoula has issued a winter storm warning for elevations above 6000 feet based on the GFS, which has been more consistent. The FBAN at the Liberty Fire calls again.

How will you respond to the FBAN? Select the best answer.

Question 3.

It is September 13th. Forecast models continue to indicate a significant rain event starting by 12Z tomorrow. The GFS is indicating snow levels down to 6000 feet, though the NAM shows snow could accumulate as low as 4000 feet. NWS Missoula has issued a winter storm warning for elevations above 6000 feet based on the GFS, which has been more consistent. The FBAN at the Liberty Fire calls again.

How will you respond to the FBAN? Select the best answer.

Feedback

Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th and cut off the firefighters in the large spike camp at 5000 ft. While you started with a well-constructed conceptual model and adapted it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions, you did not identify the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. The snow made roads impassable and the lack of supplies to deal with the cold weather led to an increase in firefighter illnesses.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria and the burnout operation spotted over control lines creating new problems. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th and cut off the firefighters in the large spike camp at 5000 ft. You began with a well-constructed conceptual model, but did not adapt it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions. Yet, you identified the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. The Incident team was able to send cold weather supplies to the camp before the roads became temporarily impassable. Other fires received little moisture from the system and saw an escalation in fire activity.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria and the burnout operation spotted over control lines creating new problems. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th and cut off the firefighters in the large spike camp at 5000 ft. You began with a well-constructed conceptual model and while you adapted it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions, you did not answer the FBAN’s question. Yet, you identified the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. The Incident team was able to send cold weather supplies to the camp before the roads became temporarily impassable. Other fires received little moisture from the system and saw an escalation in fire activity.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria and the burnout operation spotted over control lines creating new problems. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th and cut off the firefighters in the large spike camp at 5000 ft. You began with a well-constructed conceptual model and while you adapted it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions, you did not answer the FBAN’s question. You did not identify the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. The snow made roads impassable and the lack of supplies to deal with the cold weather led to an increase in firefighter illnesses.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria and the burnout operation spotted over control lines creating new problems. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th and cut off the firefighters in the large spike camp at 5000 ft. You began with a well-constructed conceptual model and while you adapted it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions, you did not answer the FBAN’s question. You did not provide your level of confidence in significant rainfall. As a result of the uncertainty, the FBAN left the resources in place. You also did not identify the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. The snow made roads impassable and the lack of supplies to deal with the cold weather led to an increase in firefighter illnesses. Other fires received little moisture from the system and saw an escalation in fire activity.

Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th and cut off the firefighters in the large spike camp at 5000 ft. While you started with a well-constructed conceptual model and adapted it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions, you did not identify the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. You also did not provide your level of confidence in significant rainfall. As a result of the uncertainty, the FBAN left the resources in place. The snow made roads impassable and the lack of supplies to deal with the cold weather led to an increase in firefighter illnesses. The last adjustment to your conceptual model was incomplete.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria and the burnout operation helped the fire to spread. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th and cut off the firefighters in the large spike camp at 5000 ft. While you started with a well-constructed conceptual model, you failed to adapt it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions and you did not identify the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. You also did not provide your level of confidence in significant rainfall. As a result of the uncertainty, the FBAN left the resources in place. The snow made roads impassable and the lack of supplies to deal with the cold weather led to an increase in firefighter illnesses.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria and the burnout operation spotted over control lines creating new problems. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th and cut off the firefighters in the large spike camp at 5000 ft. While you started with a well-constructed conceptual model, you failed to adapt it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions; you also did not identify the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. The snow made roads impassable and the lack of supplies to deal with the cold weather led to an increase in firefighter illnesses.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria and it was good that the burnout did not happen. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th and cut off the firefighters in the large spike camp at 5000 ft. Even though you began with a simplistic conceptual model that did not reflect the geographic uncertainty, you adapted it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions and identified the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. The Incident team was able to send cold weather supplies to the camp before the roads became temporarily impassable. Other fires that received little moisture from the system saw an escalation in fire activity.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria and it was good that the burnout did not happen. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th and cut off the firefighters in the large spike camp at 5000 ft. Even though you began with a simplistic conceptual model that did not reflect the geographic uncertainty, you adapted it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions. Yet, you did not identify the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. The snow made roads impassable and the lack of supplies to deal with the cold weather led to an increase in firefighter illnesses. Other fires received little moisture from the system and saw an escalation in fire activity.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria and it was good that the burnout did not happen. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th and cut off the firefighters in the large spike camp at 5000 ft. Even though you began with a simplistic conceptual model that did not reflect the geographic uncertainty, you adapted it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions. You did not provide your level of confidence in significant rainfall. As a result of the uncertainty, the FBAN left the resources in place. You also did not identify the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. The snow made roads impassable and the lack of supplies to deal with the cold weather led to an increase in firefighter illnesses. Other fires received little moisture from the system and saw an escalation in fire activity.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria and the burnout spotted over control lines creating new problems. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th and cut off the firefighters in the large spike camp at 5000 ft. You began with a simplistic conceptual model that did not reflect the geographic uncertainty but adapted it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions. You did not provide your level of confidence in significant rainfall. As a result of the uncertainty, the FBAN left the resources in place. You also did not identify the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. The snow made roads impassable and the lack of supplies to deal with the cold weather led to an increase in firefighter illnesses. Other fires received little moisture from the system and saw an escalation in fire activity.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria and the burnout operation spotted over control lines creating new problems. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th and cut off the firefighters in the large spike camp at 5000 ft. You began with a simplistic conceptual model that did not reflect the geographic uncertainty and you failed to adapt it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions. Yet, you identified the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. The Incident team was able to send cold weather supplies to the camp before the roads became temporarily impassable. Other fires received little moisture from the system and saw an escalation in fire activity.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria and the burnout operation spotted over control lines creating new problems. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th. You began with a simplistic conceptual model that did not reflect the geographic uncertainty but adapted it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions. You identified the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. The Incident team was able to send cold weather supplies to the camp before the roads became temporarily impassable. Other fires received little moisture from the system and saw an escalation in fire activity.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria and the burnout operation spotted over control lines creating new problems. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th and cut off the firefighters in the large spike camp at 5000 ft. You began with a simplistic conceptual model that did not reflect the geographic uncertainty but adapted it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions. Your conceptual model did not include the vulnerability of the spike camp due to snow. The snow made roads impassable and the lack of supplies to deal with the cold weather led to an increase in firefighter illnesses. Your response left the FBAN uncertain about your confidence. Other fires received little moisture from the system and saw an escalation in fire activity.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria and it was good that the burnout did not happen. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th. Without information about the approaching weather event, the fire team was unable to anticipate the change until it was too late. Even though you began with a rudimentary conceptual model, you adapted it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions. You identified the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. The Incident team was able to send cold weather supplies to the camp before the roads became temporarily impassable.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria and the burnout operation spotted over control lines creating new problems. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th and cut off the firefighters in the large spike camp at 5000 ft. You began with a rudimentary conceptual model that did not reflect the geographic uncertainty and you failed to adapt it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions. You also did not identify the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. The snow made roads impassable and the lack of supplies to deal with the cold weather led to an increase in firefighter illnesses. Other fires received little moisture from the system and saw an escalation in fire activity.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria and the burnout operation helped the fire to spread. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th and cut off the firefighters in the large spike camp at 5000 ft. Without information about the approaching weather event, the fire team was unable to anticipate the change until it was too late. You began with a rudimentary conceptual model but adapted it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions. You also did not provide your level of confidence in significant rainfall. You also did not identify the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. The snow made roads impassable and the lack of supplies to deal with the cold weather led to an increase in firefighter illnesses.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria and the burnout operation helped the fire to spread. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th and cut off the firefighters in the large spike camp at 5000 ft. You began with a rudimentary conceptual model and you failed to adapt it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions. Yet, you identified the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. The Incident team was able to send cold weather supplies to the camp before the roads became temporarily impassable.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria and the burnout operation spotted over control lines creating new problems. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th and cut off the firefighters in the large spike camp at 5000 ft. Without information about the approaching weather event, the fire team was unable to anticipate the change until it was too late. You also failed to adapt the conceptual model to the possibility of Red Flag conditions. You also did not identify the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. The snow made roads impassable and the lack of supplies to deal with the cold weather led to an increase in firefighter illnesses. Other fires received little moisture from the system and saw an escalation in fire activity.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria and the burnout operation helped the fire to spread. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th and cut off the firefighters in the large spike camp at 5000 ft. Without information about the approaching weather event, the fire team was unable to anticipate the change until it was too late. You began with a rudimentary conceptual model and you failed to adapt it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions. You also did not identify the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. The snow made roads impassable and the lack of supplies to deal with the cold weather led to an increase in firefighter illnesses.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th. Without information about the approaching weather event, the fire team was unable to anticipate the change until it was too late. You began with a rudimentary conceptual model but adapted it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions. You identified the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. The Incident team was able to send cold weather supplies to the camp before the roads became temporarily impassable.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th. Without information about the approaching weather event, the fire team was unable to anticipate the change until it was too late. You began with a rudimentary conceptual model but adapted it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions. You did not identify the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. The snow made roads impassable and the lack of supplies to deal with the cold weather led to an increase in firefighter illnesses.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria and it was good that the burnout did not happen. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th. Without information about the approaching weather event, the fire team was unable to anticipate the change until it was too late. Even though you began with a rudimentary conceptual model and you adapted it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions. You did not identify the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. The snow made roads impassable and the lack of supplies to deal with the cold weather led to an increase in firefighter illnesses.

The conditions on September 13th approached red flag criteria and it was good that the burnout did not happen. Snow fell as low as 4000 ft on September 14th. Without information about the approaching weather event, the fire team was unable to anticipate the change until it was too late. Even though you began with a rudimentary conceptual model, you adapted it to the possibility of Red Flag conditions. You did not identify the threat to the spike camp due to snowfall. The snow made roads impassable and the lack of supplies to deal with the cold weather led to an increase in firefighter illnesses.

Question 1
You correctly recognized the need to gain more information to refine the conceptual model. The moisture could improve the fire situation, however, each fire could respond differently due to its geographic location. Thus, the need to get more information.

Question 1
Your initial conceptual model needed refinement. There could be varying amounts of moisture due to the geographic range of the incidents that may not diminish all fires equally. Some of the firefighting efforts could benefit quickly, but others could struggle to make progress and could still be weeks away from reaching a stage where fire managers would feel comfortable to downsize.

Question 1
You conceptual model is rudimentary and needs work. All incident teams will be interested in the pattern change and look for ways to use it to their advantage.

Question 2
You correctly adjusted you conceptual model to acknowledge that the activity of the fire team could be challenged by the weather event ahead of the rain.

Question 2
You failed to adjust your conceptual model to include the potential red flag conditions the fire team may have to deal with besides the rain event.

Question 2
You did not answer the FBAN’s question but adapted your conceptual model to include the possibility of Red Flag conditions.

Question 3
You answered the question clearly and did a great job anticipating the potential impacts of snow on the spike camp and asked an appropriate question to further the discussion.

Question 3
You answered the FBAN’s question but you did not address the potential vulnerability of snow lower than 6000 ft. It is quite possible that this information may change how the camp at 5000 ft is secured, or it may need to be closed completely.

Question 3
You did not answer the FBAN’s question and while you mentioned snow at 6000 ft, you did not address the potential vulnerability of snow lower than 6000 ft. And you left some doubt about your confidence in rainfall amounts. It is quite possible that this information may change how the camp at 5000 ft is secured, or it may need to be closed completely. Your conceptual model of the impacts was incomplete.

Question 3
You answered the question clearly and did a great job anticipating the potential impacts of snow on the spike camp and asked an appropriate question to further the discussion.

Question 3
You answered the question clearly, however, you did not address the potential vulnerability of snow lower than 6000 ft. It is quite possible that this information may change how the camp at 5000 ft is secured, or it may need to be closed completely.

Question 3
You did not answer the FBAN’s question and while you mentioned snow at 6000 ft, you did not address the potential vulnerability of snow lower than 6000 ft. And you left some doubt about your confidence in rainfall amounts. It is quite possible that this information may change how the camp at 5000 ft is secured, or it may need to be closed completely. Your conceptual model of the impacts was incomplete.

Try Again End Simulation